What Will Happen in the Next Two Months

Coronavirus cases are dropping, but be prepared for what’s coming

Andy Slavitt
Medium Coronavirus Blog
4 min readSep 1, 2020


Photo: Scott Webb/Unsplash

Each month, I give a sense of what to expect the following month. This ought to be entertaining because I’m not sure anyone can tell you what happened this month.

The good news is—as I and others suggested would happen—the Southern states got their rising curve under control. Things flattened.

Some people will tell you it’s because we hit some magic herd immunity level in the South. There is no evidence of that. Not even circumstantial. Here’s what we learned about Southern spread… (favorite Neil Young song? Mine too).

Arizona went from a 25% test positive ratio down to 5%. How?

  • Retail can stay open if bars and indoor dining are closed/severely restricted
  • Personal social gatherings of no more than 10
  • Full mask mandate

In other words, people started behaving.