U.S. Covid-19 Deaths on Course to Surpass 500,000 in February
Only a dramatic uptick in prevention can change the math
With the official U.S. Covid-19 death toll nearing 400,000, and the current rate of new cases and deaths surging, expect half a million dead before the end of February. Only a significant turnabout in efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus and its new strains could change that calculus.
Based on input from 35 different modeling groups, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control projects the toll will be somewhere between 440,000 and 477,000 by February 6. That assumes deaths pace between 16,200 and 29,600 per week by then. In the past seven days through January 13, 23,400 Americans died of the disease — roughly the midpoint of the modeling assumptions.
Forecast models aside, should today’s pace continue through February — and only significant new prevention efforts are likely to lower it dramatically, experts say — the death toll would hit 500,000 roughly 34 days from now.
At that threshold, one out of every 662 Americans will have died from the disease.
Beyond February, the forecast depends on too many factors to predict. But if the pace continued unabated, it could then swiftly close in on the annual total for each of the perennial top…
