The State of the Union on Covid-19
The virus is moving South and Midwest in the US, “super-spreader” data is favorable to containment, and disease spread in South America is accelerating
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Today I’m sharing short updates on four Covid-19 topics: spread of the disease, science, political discourse, and global hotspots.
As expected, the disease is moving South and Midwest as the Northeast improves. Regions with early May openings are seeing increased hospitalizations. Why? Because that’s what outbreaks do. They find the open areas. Good early states — like West Virginia and Montana — are seeing growth now. Alabama, Wisconsin, and Texas are also seeing growth.
The most concerning development is pointed out here by Scott Gottlieb. Hospitalizations, after a decline, are moving back up. With 20,000 new cases, this means 800 new hospitalizations/day. If this continues, it will put hospitals in some areas under pressure.
Since 20 states don’t report, and it’s hard to get a complete picture of ICU beds, if hospitals in a state get 70% full and cases are growing, it’s a concern. This is a list I monitor:
The cause and effect of states loosening up their standards may be seen in Wisconsin. The Supreme Court overruled the Governor and people were forced to vote in person in early April.
- Cases up 42% over last 2 weeks
- Symptom monitors are off the charts
The best look at who is dying from Covid-19 is to look at NY.
- 52% of the deaths were people under 75
- 28% were people under 64
- ~4 out of 5 had an underlying medical condition
