Predictions for India
Expert projections and recommendations for one of the highest density countries
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India’s 1.3 billion people are currently sheltering in place. So far, the country has reported limited cases, but with such a high population, strict measures have been implemented early. The COV-IND-19 Study Group, an interdisciplinary group of scholars and data scientists, developed predictions and recommendations for keeping the country safe and is sharing them on Medium.
“We conclude that it is highly appropriate to adopt draconian measures for the largest democracy in the world, acting early, before the growth of Covid-19 infections in India starts to accelerate,” they write.
The group calls out the need for more testing and treatment options for the coronavirus as well as subsidies and incentives in order for the public to follow recommendations and prevent “catastrophe.” Livelihood assistance for people who test positive is critical, they argue: “For many people in India, loss of several weeks of earnings can be economically devastating and since symptoms are mild for most infected people, it is unreasonable to expect that all sick people will tightly follow restrictions unless economically protected.”
If measures aren’t taken, their high prediction of cases is 915,000 to over a million.
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And here’s another take:
