Don’t Call It a Second Wave
The first one hasn’t ended
Concerns of a coronavirus “second wave” are being stoked by headlines across the internet, from the Wall Street Journal to Bloomberg to Reuters.
But don’t let them confuse you. There is no second wave because the first one never went away.
It’s true that parts of the U.S. are experiencing spikes in Covid-19 cases right now. New case counts are rising in 23 states. Fourteen of those states and Puerto Rico have reported record seven-day averages of new cases. But the important thing to realize is that these numbers are not rising from a baseline of zero. For a second wave to start, the first one has to end.
Take a look, for example, at Arizona, where cases are up 240% in the last two weeks and hospitalizations are up 77% in the past month. On May 26, when the current spike began, Arizona’s health department reported 753 cases. The day before, it reported 308. That was a low point in the state’s curve, but it was far from zero.
Or, consider California. Its current spike began May 28, with 2,197 cases. The day before, it reported 1,949 — again, a relatively low point, but not zero.
You’ll see similar patterns for all the states that are experiencing spikes right now. Some had downward trends in their cases before the spike…
