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Don’t Call It a Second Wave
The first one hasn’t ended
Concerns of a coronavirus “second wave” are being stoked by headlines across the internet, from the Wall Street Journal to Bloomberg to Reuters.
But don’t let them confuse you. There is no second wave because the first one never went away.
It’s true that parts of the U.S. are experiencing spikes in Covid-19 cases right now. New case counts are rising in 23 states. Fourteen of those states and Puerto Rico have reported record seven-day averages of new cases. But the important thing to realize is that these numbers are not rising from a baseline of zero. For a second wave to start, the first one has to end.
Take a look, for example, at Arizona, where cases are up 240% in the last two weeks and hospitalizations are up 77% in the past month. On May 26, when the current spike began, Arizona’s health department reported 753 cases. The day before, it reported 308. That was a low point in the state’s curve, but it was far from zero.
Or, consider California. Its current spike began May 28, with 2,197 cases. The day before, it reported 1,949 — again, a relatively low point, but not zero.
You’ll see similar patterns for all the states that are experiencing spikes right now. Some had downward trends in their cases before the spike, others a plateau, but none of them had flattened the curve enough to suggest that the current rise constitutes a “second” onslaught of cases. Sure, there have been ebbs and flows in each state’s curve. But I hate to break it to you: It’s all one big wave.
What could constitute a “second” wave is the renewed feeling of worry about the coronavirus. For many people, the reopening of states, combined with decreasing case counts and positive messaging from the government about its grip on the situation, was a signal that everyone could finally relax. In many states, social distancing fell to the wayside, especially over Memorial Day weekend. People went to hair salons and attended massive parties at public pools. There’s no data showing that their anxiety levels about the coronavirus had dipped to zero, but then again, what more evidence do you need?
Now, as case counts rise, concern about the virus’s spread is rising again, but it’s not being reflected in the country’s reopening policies, which the government has not modified in light of the spikes.
Debating the use of the term “second wave” isn’t just an issue of semantics. It’s dangerous to bandy that term about right now because it incorrectly suggests the U.S. had a level of control over the coronavirus pandemic that would have allowed it to end the first wave. Unfortunately, that has never been the case.
